Posted by: bluesyemre | November 25, 2022

A Mathematician’s Guide to the World Cup

In 2010 Paul the Octopus ‘correctly’ predicted results in the 2010 World Cup. However, these days the experts are the analysts who trawl through the reams of data about players and teams. And where there is data there is mathematics. And, particularly, mathematical models. Joshua Bull is a mathematical modeller. He was also the winner of the 2020 Fantasy Football competition from over eight million entrants. So when it came to the Oxford Mathematics 2022 World Cup predictor, Josh fitted the bill perfectly. Honing in on the data, applying his modelling skills, and adding a pinch of the assumptions that inform modelling (disclaimer: he is an Ipswich Town fan), Josh has come up with the answers – or rather, likely outcomes. You can see what you think about his predictions and his methods via this video. Josh is also going to be providing predictions of individual games starting with England-Iran and including all the later knockout games on our social media channels (go to for links).

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